Large Daily Stock Variation Is Associated with Cardiovascular Mortality in Two Cities of Guangdong, China

OBJECTIVE The current study aimed to examine the effects of daily change of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index on cardiovascular mortality in Guangzhou and Taishan, China. METHODS Daily mortality and stock performance data during 2006-2010 were collected to construct the time series for the two cities. A distributed lag non-linear model was utilized to examine the effect of daily stock index changes on cardiovascular mortality after controlling for potential confounding factors. RESULTS We observed a delayed non-linear effect of the stock index change on cardiovascular mortality: both rising and declining of the stock index were associated with increased cardiovascular deaths. In Guangzhou, the 15-25 lag days cumulative relative risk of an 800 index drop was 2.08 (95% CI: 1.38-3.14), and 2.38 (95% CI: 1.31-4.31) for an 800 stock index increase on the cardiovascular mortality, respectively. In Taishan, the cumulative relative risk over 15-25 days lag was 1.65 (95% CI: 1.13-2.42) for an 800 index drop and 2.08 (95% CI: 1.26-3.42) for an 800 index rising, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Large ups and downs in daily stock index might be important predictor of cardiovascular mortality.